EVOLVE: Uncertainty-Aware Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Prediction with Adaptive Prototype Memories

arXiv:2610.32189v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Unsupervised multivariate time series anomaly prediction (AP) aims to estimate future anomaly risks from current observations, providing early-warning signals for proactive intervention and maintenance in complex systems. Existing unsupervised AP methods follow a perturbation-based paradigm, where predefined or random perturbations are injected into historical windows to simulate abnormal future evolution. However, these methods share perturbations across different variables and contexts, and learn deterministic history-to-future evolution. In reality, anomaly evolution is variable- and context-dependent: the same perturbation may be amplified into abnormal future dynamics in one variable or context, while being absorbed as normal fluctuation